Julian Leeser MP
Shadow Minister for Education
Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians
Federal Member for Berowra
Senator Matt O’Sullivan
Shadow Minister for Choice in Childcare and Early Learning
Shadow Minister for Child Protection and the Prevention of Family Violence
Deputy Manager of Opposition Business in the Senate
Senator for Western Australia
The Albanese Government’s decision to celebrate meeting its Closing the Gap preschool enrolment target ignores serious concerns about the accuracy of the data while distracting from the worsening outcomes facing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children across Australia.
Today’s Closing the Gap Annual Data Compilation Report records that 101.7 per cent of Indigenous children were enrolled in preschool nationally in 2025, with six jurisdictions reporting enrolment rates far exceeding 100 per cent.
This follows repeated warnings that the methodology underpinning Target 3 is unreliable. The Productivity Commission itself acknowledges these results occur because the enrolment data and population estimates come from different data sources using different assumptions.
Earlier this year, the Australian National Audit Office found the previous methodology relied on outdated population estimates, while a report commissioned by the Albanese Government from the Australian National University recommended adopting an alternative dataset better suited to measuring preschool enrolment.
Despite those recommendations, the Productivity Commission again acknowledges the data limitations remain and that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projections continue to underestimate the Indigenous population in the years after the 2021 Census due to changes over time in how individuals choose to identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander.
Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians Julian Leeser said the Government risks misleading itself into believing it has achieved a better outcome than it actually has.
“Of the 19 Closing the Gap socio-economic targets, only one has been met, and even that target is clouded by significant concerns about the integrity of the data.”
“Australians expect governments to be honest about the challenges we face. Accurate data is essential because policy decisions are only as good as the information they are based on. Closing the Gap targets should be about delivering better outcomes for Indigenous Australians, not creating headlines for ministers.”
Shadow Minister for Choice in Childcare and Early Learning Senator Matt O’Sullivan said the Government’s fixation on a single disputed target also ignored the broader picture.
“Every Australian wants Indigenous children to have the best possible start in life. But no one should be celebrating while serious questions remain about the accuracy of the data.”
“When six jurisdictions are reporting preschool enrolment rates far above 100 per cent, it is obvious the Government should be focused on fixing the methodology rather than congratulating itself.”
Mr Leeser said the report showed Indigenous children continued to face worsening outcomes in other key target areas.
“The report shows the over-representation of Indigenous children in out-of-home care continues to worsen, with more than 20,800 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children now in care. Nearly half of all children in out-of-home care are Indigenous, despite Indigenous children representing only a small proportion of Australia’s child population.”
“Just one in three Indigenous children are developmentally on track when they commence school, while every state and territory has recorded either worsening childhood development outcomes or worsening over-representation of Indigenous children in out-of-home care.”
The Australian National Audit Office has already raised concerns about the accuracy of the Government’s reporting on the Closing the Gap target around preschool, explicitly referring to “biased and at times mathematically impossible observations”. The Audit Office has unequivocally recommended that Closing the Gap reporting be improved to be complete and meaningful.
The Coalition calls on the Albanese Government implement these recommendations and improve the way it collects and reports data on preschool attendance before setting any new target.
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